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UW-L’s Chergosky takes all the “fun” out of presidential election with one early scenario



FILE - Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden (left) and President Donald Trump speak during the second and final presidential debate Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020, at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

All the hype headed into Tuesday’s presidential election, but UW-La Crosse political science professor, Dr. Anthony Chergosky, isn’t having it.


One scenario, one state, that’s all it might take to end this thing between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. That state, however, isn’t Wisconsin. It is, of course, Florida, and its 29 electoral votes.

“If we get a call out of Florida, then Trump has zero potential paths to victory,” Chergosky said Friday on La Crosse Talk PM. “Trump has to win Florida. So if Biden wins Florida, then call it a night, Biden’s the next president.”

On top of that, Florida is, of course, on the east coast, so it might have results fairly early, leaving little to the unknown in Chergosky’s hypothesis.

Chergosky hinted that Wisconsin might be the second-most important state. But Trump needs Florida first.

“I think the difference there, between Florida and Wisconsin, is that Wisconsin could be the decisive state in this election to get them over the magic number of 270 electoral votes,” Chergosky said. “If Biden wins Florida, we’d be in for a pretty clear landslide.”

There’s another scenario Chergosky pointed out that, if it happens, you may as well just go to bed early Tuesday and wait until the recounts are done. And that’s if Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.

“If Trump wins those states, then buckle up, we might be in for a long ride here,” Chergosky said. “But if Biden wins those states, you can pretty much call it for him.”

Florida has the third-most electoral votes, tied with New York. California has the most (55), and will go for Biden. Texas has the second-most (38) and Chergosky believes that one is leaning Trump.

Wisconsin, at 10 votes, is tied for 18th with four states. Georgia has 16 votes. North Carolina has 15.

Host of WIZM's La Crosse Talk PM | University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point graduate | Hometown: Greenville, Wis | Avid noonball basketball player and sand volleyballer in La Crosse